Aisha Yesufu – In the wake of the recent military coup in Niger, a pertinent question has emerged, echoing through discussions across the nation: does Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s call for an intervention in Niger reflect a genuine concern for regional stability, or does it belie a more personal apprehension of potential upheaval within Nigeria’s borders? Among those voicing this thought-provoking perspective is Aisha Yesufu, a prominent Nigerian human rights activist whose insights illuminate the complex dynamics at play in the region.

As the discourse unfolds, Yesufu’s viewpoint adds an intriguing layer to the ongoing dialogue surrounding Tinubu’s involvement and its implications for both Nigeria and its neighbors.

The military has long been a crucial institution in safeguarding States from external threats. However, in fulfilling this role, military institutions have also presented security risks to their own governments. The potential for the military to turn against its own regime has been a persistent concern, especially in countries with loose political control over the armed forces.

This article delves into the intricate relationship between politics and military coups in Africa, with a specific focus on West Africa. It seeks to shed light on the resurgence of coups in the region, their underlying causes, and the relevance of regional organizations in maintaining peace and security.

The Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa

While some analysts believed that coups were declining in Africa, recent events have shown otherwise. Between the 1960s and 2012, African States experienced over 200 military takeovers. In recent years, West African countries such as Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Mali, Chad, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Niger Republic have witnessed both successful and failed coup attempts. This resurgence of coups in the region has raised concerns about peace and security, prompting questions about the effectiveness of regional organizations like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Understanding the Causes of Military Coups

Numerous factors have been attributed to the occurrence of military coups in Africa. Internal factors such as modernization, cultural pluralism, soldiers’ grievances, corruption, poor governance, autocracy, limited economic growth, and low-income levels have been widely discussed. However, this article highlights the pivotal role of external entities, often overlooked in the literature. While some discussions have touched upon colonial heritage and the Cold War as contributing factors, they have not been convincingly presented.

The Role of Neocolonialism in Military Coups

To address the limitations in the existing discourse, this article argues that military coups in Africa are best understood through the lens of neocolonialism. This perspective sheds light on how lingering effects of colonial rule, economic dependencies, and external influence continue to shape the political landscape in African countries. By recognizing the impact of neocolonialism, we gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics that fuel military coups in the region.

Military Coups as Politics by Other Means

Another key aspect discussed in this article is the idea that military coups, while undesirable, can be viewed as a continuation of politics by other means. They represent a shift in power dynamics within the political landscape, where the military takes control of the apex of the state and influences decision-making processes. This perspective allows us to perceive coups not merely as isolated incidents but as outcomes of complex political struggles within the nation.

The recent developments involving the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and its push for the restoration of democracy in Niger Republic have sparked questions about the motivations behind this regional intervention. The involvement of ECOWAS, led by its chairman Bola Ahmed Tinubu, raises eyebrows and invites scrutiny, especially given Tinubu’s own political history and the ongoing challenges faced by his home country, Nigeria.

Tinubu’s Political Background

Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ascent to the presidency of Nigeria has been marred by allegations of fraudulent methods during the country’s democratic process. Reports of widespread rigging, violence, and voter intimidation have surrounded his presidency. These claims find support in the European Union Observer’s Report on the elections, which highlighted irregularities. The controversy surrounding his rise to power sets a backdrop for analyzing his eagerness to lead ECOWAS’ intervention in Niger.

Historical Context: Coups in Nigeria

The history of military coups in Nigeria provides valuable insights into the dynamics of political transitions within the country. A recurring theme emerges from these coups: a deep-seated distrust in the leadership of the ousted government. Whether it was Brigadier Sani Abacha’s critique of “inept and corrupt” governance or Major General Ibrahim Babangida’s claims of “inconsistency and incompetence,” coups often arose from leaders’ dissatisfaction with the handling of national affairs.

Current Landscape: Nigeria’s Challenges

As of 2023, Nigeria faces a series of pressing challenges that have sparked discontent among its population. The nation grapples with a breakdown of law and order, a strained judiciary, and a lack of trust in the electoral process. The economy is struggling, and instances of banditry, kidnapping, and ethnic violence have surged. This volatile backdrop evokes memories of past coups in Nigeria, where leaders’ distrust in governance paved the way for military intervention.

Tinubu’s ECOWAS Leadership and Regional Intervention

Tinubu’s involvement in leading ECOWAS’ efforts to address the situation in Niger may be seen as a strategic move. By taking a prominent role, Tinubu could be seeking to gauge regional support should his own leadership be challenged. His decision to lead the charge against Niger’s political turmoil might reflect his awareness of the potential for similar upheaval in Nigeria. This move could be a calculated effort to solidify regional alliances and position himself strategically in the event of future domestic turmoil.

As events in Niger Republic unfold and ECOWAS, under the leadership of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, takes a stand for democracy, a broader picture emerges—one that encompasses Nigeria’s political dynamics, historical precedents, and the looming possibility of a military coup. Speculations surrounding a potential coup in Nigeria are rooted in a complex interplay of factors, including Tinubu’s role, the relationship between civilian and military leadership, and the historical context of military interventions.

Tinubu’s Calculated Leadership

Tinubu’s involvement in leading ECOWAS’ charge for democratic restoration reflects a nuanced understanding of regional politics and his position within it. While some suggest that his close ties to the military might dissuade any coup attempt, history cautions us against oversimplification. While financial incentives and increased benefits have been used to prevent military interventions in some countries, the military’s perspective on a failing government goes beyond monetary considerations.

Military’s Perception of a Failing Government

Experience has shown that a military’s assessment of a government’s effectiveness goes beyond material gains. Even when treated well and incentivized, military forces have still toppled governments. This is often rooted in the military’s perception of its role as safeguarding the nation. When a government is seen as incapable of addressing internal threats and maintaining order, the military might interpret its intervention as necessary for the country’s stability. The military’s role in handling external threats versus addressing internal turmoil creates a tension that could lead to an intervention, regardless of financial inducements.

The Complexity of Preventing a Coup

While the idea of Tinubu exerting influence over the military is a possibility, it is not a foolproof strategy to prevent a coup. The military’s perception of a government’s shortcomings and its responsibility to maintain national stability often trumps financial incentives. Nigeria’s history has demonstrated instances where military coups have occurred despite improved treatment and benefits for the armed forces.

Conclusion: A Precarious Balancing Act

The situation in Niger Republic has brought to the forefront questions about leadership, democracy, and the potential for military intervention. While Tinubu’s role and his relationship with the military raise interesting points, it is essential to recognize the complex interplay of factors that contribute to a military coup.

The historical precedent of governments being overthrown despite attempts to prevent it highlights the intricate nature of Nigeria’s political landscape. As ECOWAS intervenes and regional dynamics evolve, the fate of Nigeria’s governance rests on a precarious balancing act—one that takes into account both internal and external pressures, as well as the military’s perception of its role in a nation’s stability.

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